How the world connects, learns, works and buys, told in real numbers from public sources. Every figure on every slide links to where it came from.
Starvard Research, the research lab of Starvard University · starvard.org/research
Why this report exists
For 25 years, one deck told the internet what it looked like.
Mary Meeker's Internet Trends reports were the technology world's annual physical exam: hundreds of slides, one idea each, every claim pinned to a number.
1995
the series begins at Morgan Stanley
355
slides at its 2017 peak, the longest edition
2025
the series returns at Bond Capital, on AI alone
Series history as documented in the editions themselves and their published record.
Why this report exists
Her best calls were great. Her misses were printed too.
Called it
Mobile passing desktop. Messaging apps becoming platforms. Internet ads passing print, then TV. And the famous gap: in 2015 mobile held 24 percent of U.S. media time but 8 percent of ad spend, a gap she sized at 25 billion dollars.
Missed it
Critics said the decks sometimes stopped short of analysis. A 2013 statistic about phones being checked 150 times a day did not survive scrutiny. One study found she understated internet growth: 7 percent penetration forecast for 2010, 29 percent actual.
The method worth copying
Compilation, not primary research: UN and ITU data, Pew, company filings, every slide footnoted, and the whole thing published free while rivals kept theirs private. That is the model for this report.
Framing prepared from the published editions and the public record of the series.
How to read this report
Every number here can be checked.
We do not buy private data. This report is built only from strong public sources: the ITU, Pew Research, the Stanford AI Index, DataReportal, the IEA, company filings and official statistics. If a figure could not be sourced, it is not on a slide. Vintages are stated, because a 2025 number and a 2018 number are not the same kind of truth.
One honesty rule we kept from the first edition: where a classic chart cannot be rebuilt from public data (Meeker's time-versus-spend gap tables now sit behind a paywall), we say so on the slide instead of inventing the percentage.
Full source list in the closing slides; every slide carries its own source footnote.
01 · The Internet Now
The internet is now most of human life.
6.0B
people are online: three quarters of everyone on Earth.
Each line ends the day that service crossed one million users. For scale: Facebook took about 10 months, Netflix about 3.4 years.
Sources: Sam Altman, December 5, 2022 · Instagram's own milestone list (founded October 6, 2010; 1M on December 21, 2010) · Spotify via Music Ally, March 2, 2009 · musically.com
02 · The Race
The race to 100 million was not close either.
Threads
5 days
ChatGPT
2 months
TikTok
9 months
Instagram
874 days
Facebook
1,665 days
Twitter
1,881 days
Spotify
2,813 days
Netflix needed about a decade on its streaming service. One correction the record forced on us: the popular roundup table's "Spotify, 55 months" is wrong against Spotify's own numbers. It took 92 months.
Sources: Zuckerberg via Reuters, July 2023 · UBS study via Reuters, February 2023 · UBS citing Sensor Tower, for TikTok · company milestone lists for Instagram, Facebook, Spotify · techcrunch.com
02 · The Race
Then ChatGPT kept going.
Nov 2023
100M
Aug 2024
200M
Dec 2024
300M
Feb 2025
400M
Mar 2025
500M
Aug 2025
700M
Oct 2025
800M
Feb 2026
900M
Sep 2026
1.2B
Weekly users, each rung an OpenAI executive statement. The last rung is Sam Altman at DevDay, September 29, 2026, as reported; OpenAI has not published that figure on its own site, and we label it that way.
Sources: OpenAI statements at DevDay 2023, DealBook 2024, and via executives Lightcap and Turley, 2025 · OpenAI announcement, February 27, 2026 · final rung as reported from DevDay, September 2026 · technologychecker.io
02 · The Race
Meta AI claims a billion people too. Read the small print.
Oct 2024
500M+
Jan 2025
700M+
Apr 2025
almost 1B
May 2025
1B
The honest caveat: Meta AI's number rides distribution. It was built into WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook, whose search bars it replaced in April 2025; the standalone app launched only on April 29, 2025, and Meta's own CFO described usage as led by WhatsApp. One billion monthly users "across its apps" is a different thing from a billion people choosing a new product, and the chart should not pretend otherwise.
Sources: Mark Zuckerberg, Meta earnings calls Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, and the annual shareholder meeting, May 28, 2025, as reported by CNBC and TechCrunch · techcrunch.com
03 · The AI Shift
The fastest adoption curve ever measured.
800M
people use ChatGPT every week, less than three years after launch.
Source: OpenAI, DevDay keynote, October 2025 · tech.eu
03 · The AI Shift
Use is compounding, not plateauing.
Messages a day, June 2024
451M
Messages a day, June 2025
2.63B
18B
messages a week by July 2025
10%
of the world's adults had adopted ChatGPT
~50%
of messages come from users under 26
Source: OpenAI and Harvard, How People Use ChatGPT, September 2025 · openai.com (PDF)
03 · The AI Shift
Most ChatGPT use is not work. It is life.
Non-work share, June 2024
53%
Non-work share, June 2025
73%
Practical guidance, seeking information, writing. And growth is strongest in low and middle income countries.
Source: OpenAI and Harvard, How People Use ChatGPT, 2025 · openai.com (PDF)
03 · The AI Shift
Companies crossed the majority line in 2024.
Orgs using AI, 2023
55%
Orgs using AI, 2024
78%
Orgs using generative AI, 2023
33%
Orgs using generative AI, 2024
71%
Source: Stanford AI Index Report 2025 (McKinsey survey data) · hai.stanford.edu
03 · The AI Shift
Using it is normal. Scaling it is rare.
88%
of organizations use AI in at least one function (McKinsey, 2025)
7%
have AI fully scaled across the organization
40%
of U.S. employees use AI at work, up from 21 percent in 2023
Sources: McKinsey, The State of AI 2025 · Gallup, AI Use at Work, 2025 · gallup.com
03 · The AI Shift
The money is American, by a mile.
United States, private AI investment
$109B
China
$9.3B
United Kingdom
$4.5B
Global corporate AI investment hit a record $252.3 billion in 2024.
Source: Stanford AI Index Report 2025, economy chapter · hai.stanford.edu
03 · The AI Shift
Industry builds the frontier now.
Notable models, United States
40
Notable models, China
15
Notable models, France
3
Nearly 90 percent of notable models in 2024 came from industry, up from 60 percent in 2023.
Pew tracked 68,879 real Google searches. Google's AI Overviews passed 2 billion monthly users by July 2025.
Sources: Pew Research Center, July 2025 · Alphabet Q2 2025 remarks · pewresearch.org
03 · The AI Shift
The second company is on a rocket of its own.
Start of 2025
$1B
August 2025
$5B
End of 2025
$9B
February 2026
$14B
April 2026
$30B
May 2026
$47B
Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate, every rung stated by Anthropic itself in its own announcements. Reports since put it higher still ($65 billion per Bloomberg, July 2026; $100 billion per The New York Times, September 2026). Those are reported figures, not company statements, so they stay in this footnote.
Source: Anthropic announcements (Series F, G and H posts) · anthropic.com
03 · The AI Shift
Its coding tool went from launch to $2.5 billion in nine months.
September 2025
$500M
November 2025
$1B
February 2026
$2.5B
10x
usage growth in Muse's first three months
~4%
of all public GitHub commits authored by Claude Code in February 2026 (SemiAnalysis estimate, cited by Anthropic)
Customers spending over one million dollars a year with Anthropic. One disclosure Anthropic has never made: a Claude user count. The circulating numbers are third party visit estimates, so they are not charted here.
Source: Anthropic announcements, 2024 to 2026 · anthropic.com
04 · Compute and Energy
AI is now an electricity story.
945 TWh
of electricity a year for data centres by 2030, more than double today, roughly Japan's entire electricity consumption. Demand from AI optimised centres more than quadruples.
Tonnes of CO2 equivalent. Training compute doubles roughly every five months; hardware efficiency improves about 40 percent a year, and demand is winning.
Source: Stanford AI Index Report 2025 (Epoch AI data) · hai.stanford.edu
05 · How the World Learns
One app teaches 128 million people every month.
Duolingo monthly users, Q2 2024
103.6M
Duolingo monthly users, Q2 2025
128.3M
Duolingo daily users, Q2 2025
47.7M
10.9M
people pay for the app, up 37 percent in a year
37%
of monthly users open it every single day
Source: Duolingo Q2 2025 shareholder letter (SEC filing) · sec.gov
05 · How the World Learns
Online courses crossed into the hundreds of millions.
183M
registered learners on Coursera alone, adding 7.5 million in a single quarter. Its AI courses passed 10 million enrollments, arriving at 12 a minute. edX reports 100 million learners of its own.
Sources: Coursera Q2 2025 shareholder letter · edX, February 2026 · edx.org
05 · How the World Learns
The honest counterweight: most never finish.
Best MOOC completion rate
52%
Median MOOC completion rate
12.6%
Lowest MOOC completion rate
0.7%
Across 221 courses studied at Lancaster University. Reach is solved. Follow-through is the open problem in online learning, and it is the problem worth solving.
Source: Jordan, MOOC completion research (Lancaster University repository) · lancs.ac.uk
05 · How the World Learns
Online stayed mainstream after the emergency ended.
U.S. undergrads taking an online course, fall 2021
61%
Studying exclusively online
28%
9.4 million undergraduates took at least one distance course in fall 2021, up from 36 percent taking any in 2019.
Source: NCES FastFacts (U.S. Department of Education) · nces.ed.gov
05 · How the World Learns
Video is the world's quiet classroom.
Watched a video to learn something new
51%
Called video important to how they learn
67%
U.S. YouTube users, in Pew's last dedicated study of learning on the platform (2018). Stated plainly because the vintage matters: this remains the benchmark figure, and no newer equivalent study has replaced it.
Employers say two skills in five are about to change.
New jobs created by 2030
170M
Jobs displaced by 2030
92M
~40%
of job skills change by 2030
63%
of employers cite the skills gap as the key barrier
77%
of employers plan to upskill their own workers
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 · weforum.org
05 · How the World Learns
The reskilling bill comes due for most workers.
Workers needing training by 2030, per 100
59
Unlikely to get it, per 100
11
That second bar is over 120 million people at risk of redundancy. The fastest growing skills employers name: AI, big data, cybersecurity, and right beside them, analytical thinking and resilience.
Source: World Economic Forum, Future of Jobs Report 2025 · weforum.org
06 · How the World Works
Hybrid is the settlement, and it is holding.
Hybrid
52%
Fully remote
26%
Fully on site
22%
27%
of paid U.S. workdays were worked from home in June 2025
46%
of remote capable workers would be unlikely to stay if remote work ended
Sources: Gallup, hybrid work indicators, 2025 · WFH Research (Barrero, Bloom, Davis), June 2025 · Pew Research Center, January 2025 · pewresearch.org
06 · How the World Works
AI use at work doubled in two years.
U.S. employees using AI, 2023
21%
U.S. employees using AI, 2025
40%
8%
use it daily, still a small core
82%
of company leaders expect to use AI agents as digital team members within 12 to 18 months
46%
of leaders say agents already fully automate some workflows
Sources: Gallup, 2025 · Microsoft, Work Trend Index 2025 · gallup.com
06 · How the World Works
Where AI skills get hired, per job ad.
Singapore
3.27%
Luxembourg
1.99%
Hong Kong
1.89%
United States
1.79%
Canada
1.41%
United Kingdom
1.26%
Share of 2024 job postings requiring AI skills. Generative AI as a named skill quadrupled its U.S. posting share in one year, 0.05 to 0.22 percent.
Source: Stanford AI Index Report 2025 (Lightcast data) · hai.stanford.edu
06 · How the World Works
Freelance's growth engine is AI work.
AI work volume growth, Q1 2025
+25%
AI work volume growth, Q2 2025
+30%
Prompt engineering growth, Q2 2025
+51%
28%
of skilled knowledge workers freelanced in the past year
3x
what AI clients spend versus the average client on Upwork
Sixty percent of people worldwide expect AI to change their job within five years. Optimism and adoption travel together.
Source: Ipsos survey data in the Stanford AI Index Report 2025 · hai.stanford.edu
07 · How the World Buys
Online passed a fifth of all retail.
$6.4T
of retail e-commerce sales worldwide in 2025, 20.5 percent of all retail. No statistical agency publishes a global total; this is the standard forecast series, labeled as such.
Online share of retail, each from its own official or standard source: ONS (UK, August 2026), National Bureau of Statistics (China, 2025), EMARKETER (world, 2025), U.S. Census Bureau (Q2 2026, $340.2 billion).
Sources: ONS · NBS China · EMARKETER · U.S. Census Bureau · census.gov
07 · How the World Buys
The checkout moved to the phone, then to three aisles.
Electronics, U.S. online holiday sales
$59.8B
Apparel
$49.0B
Furniture
$31.1B
Grocery
$23.7B
56.4%
of U.S. online holiday transactions happened on a smartphone
66.5%
on Christmas Day itself
Source: Adobe, 2025 holiday shopping season report (November to December 2025) · adobe.com
07 · How the World Buys
Four adults in five can now be paid digitally.
Adults with a financial account, 2011
51%
2021
74%
2024
79%
61%
of adults in developing economies made or received a digital payment in 2024
36%
of adults in those economies bought something online
Source: World Bank, Global Findex Database 2025 · worldbank.org
07 · How the World Buys
The ad money lives online now.
Search advertising
$102.9B
Social advertising
$88.8B
Digital video advertising
$62.1B
U.S. internet advertising revenue reached $258.6 billion in 2024. Social was the fastest riser, up 36.7 percent.
Source: IAB, Internet Advertising Revenue Report, full year 2024 · iab.com
07 · How the World Buys
Creators became a line item.
Creator ad spend, 2021
$13.9B
Creator ad spend, 2024
$29.5B
Creator ad spend, 2025 projected
$37B
$70B+
paid by YouTube to creators, artists and media companies in three years
20.4%
of U.S. online holiday revenue arrived through affiliate and influencer links
Sources: IAB creator economy study, 2025 · Google (YouTube), February 2024 · Adobe, 2026 · iab.com
08 · The Other 2.2 Billion
Every trend in this report has a shadow.
2.2B
people are still offline: more than a quarter of the human race, untouched by every chart before this one.
The usage gap is ten times the coverage gap. For most of the offline world, the barrier is no longer the network. It is cost, skills and relevance.
Source: GSMA, State of Mobile Internet Connectivity Report 2025 · gsma.com
08 · The Other 2.2 Billion
The same data costs 22 times more of a poor income.
Mobile data basket, global median
1.4%
The affordability target
2%
Fixed broadband basket, global median
2.5%
22x
more of their income low income subscribers pay than high income ones
4 in 10
low and middle income economies meet the 2 percent target on either basket
Source: ITU, Facts and Figures 2025, affordability · itu.int
08 · The Other 2.2 Billion
Even the newest networks stop at the income line.
5G coverage, high income countries
84%
5G coverage, low income countries
4%
And 36 percent of mobile broadband subscriptions are already 5G, roughly 3 billion connections, almost none of them in the countries that need cheap data most.
A smartphone in the highest use region moves more than seven times the monthly data of one in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: Ericsson Mobility Report, November 2025 · ericsson.com
09 · What It Means (Opinion)
Our reading of the numbers.
The next classroom is a phone
Learning's giants are phone apps and video platforms, in exactly the markets where incomes are lowest. Whoever teaches well on a cheap phone, in the local language, owns the future of education.
AI is becoming a life tool first
Three quarters of ChatGPT messages are non-work now. Adoption is compounding in the developing world. The winning products will be the most useful and the most open.
Follow-through is the open frontier
Reach is solved; completion is not: a 12.6 percent median MOOC finish rate, 88 percent of firms using AI but 7 percent scaling it. The value of this decade goes to whoever closes the gap between access and outcome.
Opinion slide: Starvard Research's reading of the data in this report, labeled as such.
Method. Public sources only; no private data was bought and no figure was estimated by us. Each slide's footnote names its source and vintage. Where sources measure the same thing differently (the ITU and DataReportal count internet users differently, for example), the report keeps them in separate slides and never blends them.
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Starvard is a project of Clear, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization (EIN 47-3606375). Information is provided as-is for general education; it is descriptive reporting, not financial advice and not medical advice. This report is a compilation of public data; Starvard Research is not affiliated with or endorsed by Bond Capital, Mary Meeker, or any source cited.