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Cover of A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

Starvard · The Masters Library

A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

作者 Pierre Simon Laplace · 18 部分 · about 4 hours 21 minutes 阅读时间

你好,我叫 Finn,我来帮你读懂这本书。

来了,像给10岁的你讲的那样:

很久以前，人们把自己不明白的事情归咎于运气、命运和发怒的神。拉普拉斯，法国一位伟大的思想家，说我们可以做得更好。在这本书里，他用平白的话，几乎不用难的计算，解释机会到底是怎样运作的。他看赌博，看陪审团和投票，看人能活多久，也看我们为什么总在运气上欺骗自己。

整本书用英文阅读。这里是所有章节:

下载本书 PDF(英文)

章节

Chapter 1: Introduction1 min Chapter 2: Concerning Probability10 min Chapter 3: The General Principles of the Calculus of Probabilities12 min Chapter 4: Concerning Hope7 min Chapter 5: Concerning the Analytical Methods of the Calculus of Probabilities39 min Chapter 6: Games of Chance3 min Chapter 7: Concerning the Unknown Inequalities Which May Exist Among Chances Which Are Supposed Equal5 min Chapter 8: Concerning the Laws of Probability Which Result from the Indefinite Multiplication of Events18 min Chapter 9: The Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to Natural Philosophy47 min Chapter 10: Application of the Calculus of Probabilities to the Moral Sciences2 min Chapter 11: Concerning the Probabilities of Testimonies23 min Chapter 12: Concerning the Selections and the Decisions of Assemblies7 min Chapter 13: Concerning the Probability of the Judgments of Tribunals11 min Chapter 14: Concerning Tables of Mortality, and of Mean Durations of Life, of Marriages, and of Associations12 min Chapter 15: Concerning the Benefits of Institutions Which Depend Upon the Probability of Events14 min Chapter 16: Concerning Illusions in the Estimation of Probabilities22 min Chapter 17: Concerning the Various Means of Approaching Certainty12 min Chapter 18: Historical Notice Concerning the Calculus of Probabilities16 min